harmonics and clarity

I share my analysis when I have something worth sharing to an email group last week I posted some scenarios with regard to the SP futures and Euro dollar in conjunction with the Dollar index completing a pattern as the EURO HIT AN AREA of interest.

What I shared was a buy pattern up into a sell area for a short into a close area for the SPS. I also suggested a sell area for the dollar indoex or a buy for the Euro on the premise the dollar turning in the area mentioned as they are closely correalated.

Now I will post the charts and what happend you can make your own mind up if you think it has any value but let me say these areas were posted on Dec 4th the areas wereto look for buys into the 1266 area for the SPS with a sell being iniated once the long was closed for a move down to 1220-1225.

The Dollar index to hit an area of 79.34 it hit 79.20 and the euro to be bought at 1.3275 it hit 1.3279 pretty close I think.

So why are we discussing this, its not to champion me  its to get you to appreciate how 1 harmonics can take the confusion away from trade scenarios 2 that its gives you clarity when everything seems chaotic.

However when we as traders become caught up in news driven markets you tend to forget these things and what could have been made reasonably clear appears a nightmare to many.

The problem is many traders have no patience fast moving markets make you feel you should be involved because you hear all these wonderful stories about fast and big money being made what you dont hear is very quick lost money that dissapeared from people who have no structure or plan to their trading.

I like my mentor Scott dont listen to the news very much I trade patterns I do because the patterns dont lie they are structured they are price based(the lead indicator) and they are concise with levels that are either respected or broken plain and simple.

What we as traders continually strive to do is keep making money but the ethos should really be to keep trading well the money follows that, in order to trade like a pro you should have a trading plan of what your trying to acheive, and it just isnt about as much money per trade as possible thats not clear enough.

Do you know why your trading a specific issue or commodity or future do you know what you are  trying to acheive in your trade, are you scalping, swing trading or some other strategy do you understand why volatility is causing wild swings, week movements in a day, are you applying strict risk management and so forth.

I mention this for this reason when I mentioned my trade feelings above I had basically drawn out a trade scenario / plan for that given trade I had a clear veiw of what I expected to happen what the patterns would do and if they didint what I would then expect to happen if they didint play out in the first view of mine because patterns and price structure is information and info is key its your map of the market ignore it at your peril. Y

You can try trading without a map but you will soon suffer and become lost or you can map things out be structtured patient wait for clear set ups take note of the information provided and adapt if need be, but always know what you should or should not be doing. If you dont do this in your trading your are asking for trouble.

I never ever take a trade without having an expectation of what price will do how I expect it to react and if it doesnt want then comes next for me, I use this to make sure that I am not in the market when I should not be, if I miss a trade do I lose out HELL no you have info you have the abilty to make better decisons about what trades to take and whether your in the middle of a range or should be on the sidelines waiting.

 

The misconception of amateurs is the need to always be trading and busy, the knowledge of pros is only to take the trades that line up the best probabilities of success.

THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES IN TRADING ANYTHING all you can do is do your analysis be strict on risk and play the odds and let the market do its thing I hear all the time trading is gambling and I tend to laugh most of the time and answer yes for most people it is but not for me. I laugh because the indiviual making the cvomment never understands my point when I explain it to him and for me he doesnt have to I only have to look at my bottom line to know that I understand what I am saying.

I know exactly what I am doing what my risk is what my expectations are what I want to happen what I expect to happen and if none of it pans out my plan b is ready and waiting and my plan c as well thats called being prepared and thats what the majority of traders do not do with their trades, they do not prepare themselves to trade well and then to make money because of it, they in my opinion GAMBLE.

So many want to run before they can walk so many amateurs ask for guarantees in trading and all that says to me is they have come into trading not having a basic understanding of what they are doing they have unrealistic expectations and are totally missing what trading is.

Trading is about structure,dicipline,patience, and most importantly about being humble the best traders I have met are also the most humble why probably because at some point they have been humbled by the market which is where they learn to respect that nothing is guaranteed in trading. You get rewarded for being prepared the reward is the market gives you information the key to success is being able to decipher the information given to you and act in a strcutured and diciplined manner to extract pips from the market which in turn should result in you being proftiable.

I will post the charts take a look at my suggestions and the conclusions and decide if you wish to think of value in being prepared and strucutred or just open up your charts and start trading I know what serves me.

 

 

Happy Trading

 

HT England

update on euro chart and explanation of my veiw

Firstly sry for the delay in getting this update on here but I havent been well so thats why its been delayed.

Right lets get to it I signalled on the previous post that the pattern in red was signalling the high coming out. You who are new to harmonics will wonder how I can say and expect that. The reason I cna is I dont just trade patterns and nor should you they should be studied and used for what they tell you when they work and dont work thats what I mean when I say to you the patterns give you information but if you dont know what the informtion is and what your looking for you will even wth the basic knowledge of harmonics be at a disadvantage. So lets expand on that the pattern signalled higher prices thats the core nature of that structure. Now when you look at the chart you can clearly see it fell short by tics still a gd move but thats nt what I was finding invaluable the extra value came from knowing what the pattern does as soon as it failed and broke back below the black line it was signalling failure that meant you emphasis should have been on selling into strenght and looking for patterns to do so and not be buying it as it was falling.

Thats exactly what I mean by information from the pattern. Now I was in not trade in the euro at that time but was watching the information flow from the pattern as soon as it failed it meant I was a seller and not a buyer it also meant I was a seller of anything correalated to the euro ie sps and such like. I also stress clearly about knowing the context of the strucutres your playing and clearly as well as the pattern signalling one thing you need to be aware of the main trend you are in so this is where knowing context is key.

Those of you that have been following my blogs and work know that I tend not to trade patterns against the major trend and you know I advocate that trading with the trend yields the best results but occasionally I do go against trend when price action determines it ok to do so.

The fact this pattern failed against major trend context is no suprise but as I was not in the trade if you had gone long from where I flagged the pattern at around 1.3750 you would have still allowed yourself to have scalped 50 plus points and still been profitable, but as I said the context said it should fail if it had not it would have been telling more information about the dominant trend as it was the info I got was more than enough to capitilise going forward from that point.

Hope this helps and clarifies a little about how I tend to look at things in this job its not about who gets the most right or wrong its about knowing when to be in the market at the right time and with the right trend to make the winners count, I can tell you the markets have been extremely frustrating at times with the volatilty as it is I have been stopped out many times only to see the amrket do exactly as I expect but I do not care because my philosophy and dicipline mean in the long run I will win, as long as you know your trading plan works keep to it refine it but never deviate from it no matter how tough it gets because you will always hit a time when things are just not working but you get through them trust me on this.

 

happy trading

 

HTEngland

 

 

euro chart just posted to email group

I have just sent this chart to the email group I share with and I wanted to post it on here so you can see things in real time this was posted 20 minutes ago lets see if the pattern plays out as expected.

 

you can decide if this is fluke or for real but trust me I see this happen a lot and its the differrence between being profitable and not with also the added bonus if you ever miss the trade you know what the patterns mean and can also act accordingly so you dont get yourself into any bother.

 

I will update soon on this post.

 

HTEngland

UPDATE ON SP

Here is an updated chart of the pattern posted on here 2 weeks ago sorry for thedelay but I have been extremely busy and just havent had the extra time to blog as I would like to.

 

I hope you can see some value in what I am sharing and if it helps then thats all the better.

 

happy trading

 

HTEngland

trusting the patterns

 

I just wanted to have a quick chat about patterns and when things aseem a little unclear how they can help refocus your trading if you can just allow yourself to trust what you are seeing in them.

This chart pattern was sent out to my email group that I converse with with another chart suggesting the daily pattern suggesting the high at 1229.5 high coming out and us moving to the 1250 -1275 area.

I mentioned that we could easily correct and them move higher before doing so. I do not share this to pat myself on the back or champion myself as a guru merely to share education on what harmonic patterns can do when you see things.

The market started to correct and this pattern on the chart above set up I wa actually playing a short trade from 1214 when this showed itself and covered the pattern whilst speaking wth one of the group at 1194 as IU was having to leave my desk for a few hours. I should have taken the long side as the pattern holding said the high was confirming the daily pattern signal that had already been given before this pattern set up.

However I did not a sI DONT LIKE TO INTIATE trades when I cannot watch how price acts in the zone I want to trade its just the way I do things. Suffice to say I will now post a updated chart of what happend so when in doubt please try to do these 3 things.

I stand back and get as much context on the charts as you can 2 make sure you  know which trend you are playing and why then find patterns for the trend you wish to play. Sounds simple doesnt it and it is trading is as hard as you want to make it if you want to be super trader hitting the tops and bottoms please feel free to try however if you want to win at trading think about playing wth the least painful trend as the dsaying the trend is your friend is one of the most well said staements but the most commonly ignored by amateurs because they tend to play the trend that mosts boosts their ego as opposed to the one that can most boost theor wallet unfortunately they leave that to the pros whilst handing over their money whilst trying to boost their egos which is a real waste of time and their money.

I am not being a smarty pants just stating what I know continually goes on when your bnew to the market I know because I did it until I realised its more important to win than be right they sound similar they are worlds apart in trading.

Here is the chart of what happend and this is why you should trust the patterns and not you impulses or whims as they will always tell you what you need to know if only you listen when they do.

 

BE well and happy trading

 

PS i REITERATE I do not post all live material for trade alerts on here they are reserved for those who join the email list and wish to learn more as the alerts have been used and abused by some and they know who they are so they have ruined it for all so if you want to go on my mailing list please send a mesage on her or email harmonictraderengland@btconnect.com

 

gd trading be well

 

HT England

 

 

 

last week revisted/reflection

A brief recap of the email alert I sent to my frds was that I expected a change in trend short term of the dollar index and that I felt that if it reacted where I expected then it would lead to some very good counter moves in euro and most other currencies against the dollar that have been hammered in the dollar move to strengthen against fundamentals that say it should weaken

So the dollar index hit my upper and favoured target area and triggered a short trade at the same time cad and aud against the dollar triggered and euro missed my prime tagret on a weekly pattern by 25 tics, euro reveresed of the area that was already highlighted as a buy zone.

Now of the 4 actual trades triggered im going to discuss 3 in more depth as they are linked in terms of correalation to what the dollar index does.

Aud and cad were stopped out before the dollar actually hit its target and turned down some what frustrating given that they travelled only slightly higher then dropped some 200 plus points below my original entries, but hey thats what trading the markets is like you can get the direction right but timing is also very important and on this occasion the poatterns triggered but the dollar index itself decided not to play ball straight away so even though i made the right call got the trade in dollar index spot on this still cost me two losing trades, my view is simple thats life, why can I say that its simple.

I am so confident in my abilities that both stops cost me a total of 140 tics that has been made back in the one winning trade that is still in play, but I actually have two still in play that have yielded double what was lost, that aside I still got short on both aud and cad again be it smaller than orginal entry, because the market turned and triggered to me I should be selling not buying the break out in these issues when the dollar index triggered short,  so it stopped me was I  WRONG NO I was just early you never let a losing trade deter your from the analysis your doing, mine was right price wise but wrong timewise and thats whta markets do they play to theri own tune and not mine.

So why do I bring this up well its simple really in the big scheme my analysis is does and will keep me hitting the market in the correct direction so a couple of losing trades mean ntg as I said losing trades are information your job is to focus on what your being told not the fact you lost some money or your ego took a knock it didnt the market just told me I was early thats fine I learn from that and next time I wait for the dollar to turn first then trigger myself in to shorts on other issues.

I said many posts ago you can read my work and think I know more than you or not I do get things wrong I am human and I get an awful lot right and I continue to learn from the process of trading by sharing plainly how I feel about trades what I LOOK FOR AND HOW I THINK THINGS WILL PLAY OUT, I also do it to explain that if you think I am good at what I do thats great but I still make wrong calls or have losing trades or miss things as does Scott and many other top traders because no one is right all the time. However what I will say is this you can be wrong 50 pct of the time and as long as you respect your reward risk paramters you should come out on top if you do nto then something is wrong not in your analysis but in your application of risk to reward value and more problamtic your psychology ie your losses are affeccting your ability to stay with your winners when they work.

As I said 2 losing trades have been covered by one winning trade and given I normally expect to be right 70 pct of the time in the trades I take I dont lose any sleep at all what I di do and what is proactive is to analyse what I could do better so it does not affect me again. Sometimes your plain wrong sometimes your right and sometimes your lucky and sometimes as in this case I was early and unlucky yet right in the analysis thats trading its just part of the life as a trader, so I move forward learn and continue to work at my craft and in doing so know with confidence that I willbe right far more often than worng and be paid well for the work I do so the next time you get something wrong and want to rue the market for its inexcusable behavour of bot crossing your palm wuith cash as and when you deem it so spare a thoght for thise out there that just do nothave a clue what is going on where as you who learn harmonics know as you apply it and refine your understanding and application of it do and will prosper accordingly.

As a little update I think the sp s which is my main market that I trade day in day out with fx around it has shown strenght that signifies an intermediate low in at the 1068 area future based.

The reaction of that low was strong and we have moved short term into overbought and then corrected my veiw is simple pullbacks on sps I am not looking to buy for a move back to the 1230 area, that means with the turn in the dollar index I expect it to move lower to sideways whilst the euro moves higher to sideways working of the extreme bearish sentiment against it I stated that wth the sentiment readings that are forwards looking indicators that when ytou get into low single digits of bearish or bullish it pays to take note for a potential correction as its lopsided which is what was said in the email to my frds.

The information provided now means to be a buyer of dips until the market triggers the other way in my opinon the bear market is not over Europe is not cured the debt issues havent gone away but markets have to take a breather andf correct and thats is what is happening now once this is over the downtrend will reapear my thinking is when sentiment is bullish in the extreme and I am giuessing that wont take to long to be the case as the tv cant help itself but proclaim mass sovereign debt issues are far less worrisome than a lehman bank failure. My opinon is they will rue thoise comments to think that 2007/8 to 2009 bottom was the worst of the bank crunch, let me tell you why thus far europe cant even agree on bailing greece out for some 200 billion yet they would have us beleive they will alla gree on a 2 trillion dollar fund for the banks, trust me its hot air they dont have the wealth or the finacial capacity to do it let alone the will they will orint money and montise debt but you do not solve debt issues wth making more debt and pretending the old debt is o gone, you have to stop spending more than your  earning and cut back the eurpeans do not even conside r this as an option yet so thay have more a lot more pain to come and I still doubt once they have realised this simple fact the markets will have crushed those it thoght to be unwoprthy of trust in this respect, however markets take time to play things out and they will talk and postur and do what they can to settle things down but I doubt you will see anything come of what they suggest they will do in reality compared to the fantasy numbers thrown around so sit tight be careful and respect price action, because no matter what I think I trade what I see just because I ambearish does not mean I wont buy the market if its going up because I will its about seperating what you think form what your being shown listen to the market and let it become your best friend or fight it and it will become the worst enemy ever and it will defeat you so please relax work hard and study harmonics they really realy do help you stay out of trouble well thats what I think I will leave you to see for yourself as me go forward.

Happy Trading

HTEngland

sharing a chart

I just wanted to touch on something and felt the best way to do so was with this chart.

I havent posted as much as I would have liked recently so aplogies for that I had some bads news then the markets just were not allowing me much price action to comment on so I said very little.

Now many strategies champion themselves as being the best, and quickest way to great profits, and some do fufill this promise in the short term only to be found out when the market changes its behaviour.

Why do I bring this up because of the above chart Harmonics to me is a tool a very good tool that always seems to prove itself in all market conditions when applied correctly.

I posted this chart back in late july early August to my email list to watch for the structure to correct and produce a reversal, because the nature of the pattern set up said so, I also at the time said it suggested the low would come out a big thing to say when its some 600 points higher at the time. I dont say that to be a guru what I am explaining is the nature of the patterns themselves and how they behave allows me to be this confident to make such a call.

Markets never do things in the timeframe we want and you have to be patient and given the volatilty we have had I doubt many would have been short and stayed short with the intra day swings. However even if you didnt you would still have been alerted to the nature of the change in price action to a downtrend which remains ,you should have been looking for sells not buys to trade, that in itself would be a huge bonus in the information you have compared to many which is why I feel so strongly about harmonics.

Personally they have served me very well and I believe will continue to do so, but you have to admit when you see pattern perform like this its a site to behold and you have to respect the work that scott carney has invented and developed and then shared for us to benefit from, in turn let me suggest that as your nbew to this learn to watch and study the patterns log what they do and how they perform for you its a great learning curve, and eventually you will learn to recognise and more importantly trust the very special information they are giving you that many others have not a clue about and will keep you ahead of the masses.

Happy Trading

HTEngland